Fuel is still going up in May, but the numbers just came down hard.
New data from the Central Energy Fund shows the expected increases are shrinking, even though we’re still heading for a hike.
At the start of April, petrol was expected to jump between R4.29 and R4.69 per litre. That dropped to around R3.25 to R3.63.
Now the latest numbers are sitting at roughly R2.29 to R2.63 per litre.
Diesel is the real shock. It was heading for a record R17.57 increase. That has now been cut down to about R8.06 per litre. Still massive, but a lot less brutal than where it started.
Current projections look like this:
Petrol 93 – up about R2.29 per litre
Petrol 95 – up about R2.63 per litre
Diesel – up about R8.06 per litre
So what’s driving this?
About 95% of the increase comes from global oil prices. And right now, that’s being pushed by tensions in the Middle East, especially around Iran and the US. Supply routes are under pressure and infrastructure in the region has taken damage, which means oil isn’t moving as freely as it should.
Even when things calm down, the recovery is slow.
There is still a bit of breathing room. We’ve got around two weeks before the May price is finalised, so these numbers can still shift slightly.
Then there’s the big factor most people are watching – government relief.
The current R3 per litre fuel levy cut is temporary and expires soon. There are strong indications it could be extended, with economists from Citigroup Inc saying government has the space to do it, even though it could cost up to R12 billion.
Bottom line, the increase is coming. That’s not changing.
The only question now is how much of that blow can still be softened before May kicks in.
